Premier League title race: Is Arsenal’s Manchester City confrontation make-or-break?

Pep Guardiola believes Arsenal have won the most important title this season.

ANALYSIS Premier League title race: Is Arsenal’s Manchester City confrontation make-or-break?

Seye Omidiora 20:55 - 25.04.2023

Mikel Arteta's side have the mettle to prove they are not fighting a losing battle against Pep Guardiola's troops.

Nobody likes a team sauntering to a league title, perhaps only the team with the unassailable advantage.

Despite Arsenal starting the 2022-23 campaign as top-four contenders, Mikel Arteta’s troops almost instantly demonstrated they could aim higher after a strong start.

The North London side’s early-season results may have belied their youth, but doubly apparent were the club’s dominant performances.

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The control they exuded and the sustainability of their approach won observers over, and the ease of wins at Brentford — where they meekly surrendered last season — and at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge — a ground with plentiful painful away defeats in the preceding decade and a half — underscored the potential of Arteta’s team as Premier League title contenders.

Especially with Manchester City not looking right, Liverpool’s struggles pre-World Cup, Chelsea jettisoning Thomas Tuchel, and Erik ten Hag still getting the hang of things at Manchester United, the Gunners could dream.

Pep Guardiola’s team were unimpressive. Despite Erling Haaland’s incredible start, the Cityzens’ broader structure without possession left much to be desired.

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To the untrained eye, they seemed more vulnerable to transition goals, while they looked increasingly one-dimensional at the other end as their Norwegian gobbled up most of the team’s goals.

Dominant Arsenal

As for Arsenal, they retained the vital element of their game — control — but still showed the ability to win games in different ways. They battled to grind out a 1-0 win at Leeds United, outscored Liverpool 3-2 at the Emirates Stadium and Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2 at the Amex in rip-roaring triumphs.

They dominated North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and unleashed a can of whoop-ass on Nottingham Forest, winning both games 3-1 and 5-0, respectively.

January began with seven points from nine, with a notable first away win at Spurs since March 2014 and a commanding victory over Manchester United, even if the 3-2 result suggested otherwise.

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But cracks showed in February — when Arsenal picked up one point from nine — in losses to Everton and Wednesday’s opponents, with a controversial 2-2 draw against Brentford to boot. Arteta’s men had hitherto shown why they could win their first Premier League title in 19 years but began to show why they might falter.

However, that three-game winless run was followed by a seven-game winning sequence heading to Anfield, where they had not picked up a point since 2016. 

That 2-2 draw may have been accepted as a point gained rather than two lost, but it was to begin the Gunners’ ongoing issues in the most important element of their approach: control.

Flailing Arsenal

Arteta’s men led 2-0 on Merseyside but drew 2-2, and went to West Ham but strangely lost their stranglehold at the London Stadium after going two goals up in the eventual draw.

In last week’s 3-3 tie with Southampton, they started slowly, making sloppy mistakes to concede three times at the Emirates.

Arsenal Premier League
Arsenal 3-3 Southampton Match Reactions Avoidable errors cost Arsenal in Southampton draw

Put it down to nerves of a young squad in the season’s home stretch, individual mistakes or absences of key players like William Saliba and recently Granit Xhaka, but the chaotic nature of Arsenal’s recent games could be their undoing.

It gets extra problematic when considering the team on the Gunners’ heels.

History favours Manchester City

Guardiola’s side have been there and done that but looked in danger of not being the first club since decorated neighbours Manchester United to claim three Premier League titles in a row after the defeat by Tottenham and a point at Forest in February.

Pep Guardiola
Pep Guardiola, at times, looked to be second-favourite in the Premier League title race

The response to that has been six wins on the spin, and Arsenal’s recent wobble means they could claim the title if they win the rest of their games. However, the same applies to the North London side.

Gooners’ fatalism may suggest otherwise, with most supporters resigned to the inevitable title win of Guardiola’s men, who come alive in the season’s closing weeks.

When they competed with Liverpool in 2018-19, the Cityzens picked up 14 successive victories after their last defeat of that campaign (Newcastle in late January) to edge Jurgen Klopp’s men, and it was nine victories plus three draws in 12 matches after losing 3-2 to Spurs in February 2022.

A graphic that surfaced from the Premier League’s Twitter account before Man City defeated Leicester City showed how Guardiola’s team ended previous years strongly, especially when they were neck-and-neck with a challenger.

But should that bother Arteta’s troops? Admittedly, the first-placed side may have to be perfect to win the league with 93 points, but the broader stranglehold they have showcased this term stands them in good stead in the run-in.

While the precedent indicates another Premier League title is headed for the blue half of Manchester, this is not a certainty and would be defeatist if Arsenal thinks the same.

Arteta’s troops have shown the steel to battle adversity all season, now they need to show the characteristics that got such a young side competing in the first place in the home straight.

It is still in their hands.