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As the Quarter-finals conclude, a look at the key areas of tactical advantage in the final two ties, and the likeliest paths to victory.
Egypt v Morocco
A north African derby that has the potential to be truly memorable.
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Egypt have grown steadily through the competition and were at their most impressive in their penalty shootout triumph in the Round of 16. While there still remains an uncomfortable degree of dependency on Mohamed Salah, the Pharaohs were far clearer in their ideas, and the Liverpool man showcased not just his ability as an outlet and executor, but as a facilitator as well.
Morocco arrived at the tournament fully formed, by comparison. So much so that they assimilated the loss of key personnel at various times with relative equanimity. They have been the most complete, cohesive team in the competition from a tactical perspective, and would be the clear favourite in this tie under normal circumstances.
However, the circumstances are far from normal: the Atlas Lions have been known to choke mentally on this stage, and so that really is the major hang-up for them coming.
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Not to say that Egypt cannot pose any tactical questions, of course. Because they absolutely can. As a matter of fact, the key tactical intrigue in this will be whether or not Salah can exploit the space behind the full-backs.
If Morocco’s system is defined by one thing above all else, it is depth. They typically have both full-backs pushed very high up, as Halilhodzic wants to stretch opponents vertically in order to create space between the lines of defence in midfield in order to play cut-backs. They also use very high 8s – usually Imran Louza and Selim Amallah – to combine with the full-backs and also arrive late in the box.
At its best, it can completely overwhelm teams, and likely will prove too much for Egypt here. However, there are points of concern, especially when the ball is turned over by the opponent in the middle third. Malawi exploited this on a couple of occasions in the first half of their defeat to Morocco, and so this presents an opportunity for Carlos Queiroz’s side.
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While left-back Adam Masina is typically not as high as Achraf Hakimi on the opposite flank, he will still have his hands full denying the break into space for Salah. It is probably worth it for Halilhodzic to use one of his eights, more likely Louza, a little deeper than usual on the right (as opposed to the left) and utilising a 3-2 or 2-3 defensive structure without the ball in order to protect the half-spaces.
Senegal v Equatorial Guinea
Saving the worst for last, this is bound to be the least engaging match of the round for one simple reason: the stronger side seems to have no idea how to break down an opposing defence.
Senegal have yet to concede at AFCON so far, an admirable statistic. It is going the other way that there are significant issues. They finally managed two goals from open play in the Round of 16 against Cape Verde, but they needed the Blue Sharks to go down to nine men first, which just tells the story concisely.
They appear to have abandoned the 4-4-2 for good and have committed to the 4-3-3 by bringing in another defensive midfielder. While it has made them more competitive in the middle, their ball circulation is even slower through the middle, and so their progression comes exclusively from the wide areas.
The trouble is their opponents have made their bones by being obdurate in defence, and are happy to defend crosses and cut-backs. They still have only conceded once in the tournament so far, and that was a rasping effort from outside the box by Max Gradel some 385 minutes (of play) ago. Key to their solidity is a settled backline and two banks of four, with Iban Salvador given a little more licence to attack on the right side.
Their goalscoring hopes are anchored entirely on the counterattack and, in fairness, they do it well. However, they are up against a side that has taken measures to prevent exactly that, and whose defensive structure is solid enough to deny them those avenues.
This would seem the perfect opportunity for Aliou Cisse to finally unleash a player like Pape Matar Sarr to carry the ball through the Equatorial Guinea midfield and introduce some chaos, but wishful thinking is not what this is about.
Expect a slow, turgid match with the Teranga Lions unable to find the answers in open play, and possibly needing a penalty (or penalties for that matter) to progress.
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